On 4 November 2025, ICC announced availability of its 2025 Trade Register. First produced in 2010,the ICC Trade Register examines performance and risk profiles of trade finance instruments, including default and loss rates, on the strength of aggregated data supplied by 21 global banks.
According to a Trade Register teaser previewing its latest findings, the 2025 edition offers perspective on transformational forces impacting the trade landscape including the maturation of GenAI, emergence of new free trade agreements, influence of US tariffs, steady advancement of legal recognition for digital trade documents, and strategic focus on capital efficiency.
A Market Commentary report providing contextual insights linking global trade and trade finance trends and events was produced and made freely available by ICC about the 2025 Trade Register. The report said trade experienced somewhat of a rebound in 2024 with exports expanding by 3.0% to reach a record USD 23.8 trillion by year-end, but trade volumes still lagging behind their pre-pandemic trajectory. As regards the global trade outlook for 2025 and beyond, the report acknowledged that US trade policy has become the focal point of world commerce and outlines four possible scenarios that could unfold. The most likely scenario being a “Multipolar Patchwork” of trade corridor-specific rules, export controls, and overlapping geopolitical spheres making for a fractured system marked by uncertainty.
The report also presents a brief qualitative summary of the ICC Trade Register’s full findings based on more than 47 million trade finance and export finance transactions with exposures in excess of USD 23 trillion. According to its calculations, the combination of commercial LCs, performance guarantees & standbys, and supply chain finance exposures in the Trade Register amounts to about 13% of traditional trade finance flows worldwide in 2024.
Although the Market Commentary report does not reveal the numbers, it informs that the 2025 Trade Register data analysis continues to evidence that trade finance and export finance represent a low-risk asset class even during times of market uncertainty. Comparing 2023 data to that for 2024, the report gives the general direction of three measures of default rates for each product type.
For import LCs, exposure-weighted default rates decreased, but increased slightly on both an obligor-weighted basis and transaction-weighted basis. For export LCs marked by low default rates as they reflect bank risk, defaults significantly declined across all three measures, but particularly sharply on an exposure-weighted basis. For performance guarantees & standbys, default rates for each of the measures increased marginally. In the area of supply chain finance, data availability is for payables finance. While default rates ticked upward across all three measures in 2024, SCF payables finance remains low risk and particularly among the lowest-risk trade finance products on an exposure-weighted basis. Regarding trade loans for import and export, there was a slight decrease in exposure-weighted default rates from 2023 to 2024, but defaults increased both on a transaction-weighted and obligor-weighted basis. With respect to export finance, the report indicates that the 2025 Trade Register’s findings showing a drop in default rates across all three measures further reinforces that export finance presents a low risk for banks.
Starting at EUR 2,500, four options are offered by ICC for gaining access to 2025 ICC Trade Register material and data analysis.
